Question: Nuclear is back. But does it have staying power?

Reading the bullish signals and Big Tech adoption one might believe a boom in new nuclear capacity construction is just around the corner. But is it? That question, and distinguishing between opportunistic capture of existing capacity and a viable path for future deployment was the focus of the week.

Analysis: The Nuance Behind the Nuclear Renaissance

Three structural forces challenge the long-term thesis: the flexibility mismatch, the velocity of learning curves, and whether the tech led boom is strictly a US phenomenon. Read the full analysis in “The Nuance Behind the Nuclear Renaissance”

Idea: The Nuclear Cost Curve

Costs curves are a major hurdle for new projects. Western markets exhibiting negative learning curves (rising costs) while Asian markets show the opposite. Is this intrinsic (the Western “Curse”) or a function of regional factors (the Asian “Counter-Proof”)? One explanation for this observational paradox is that “Forgetting Rates” (atrophy) can outpace “Learning Rates” when the construction cadence drops below a critical threshold. Read the full analysis in “Nuclear Cost Curve”.

Conversation: We explore the current conflicting narratives surrounding nuclear energy, contrasting the excitement from big tech companies investing in Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) with a recent, more pessimistic World Nuclear Industry Status Report. Watch the replay of The Nuclear Paradox.

Visual: One image to save.

The cascade of headlines and announcements fueling the nuclear renaissance.

This week, we explored what that pivot means for the rest of the world.

The Focus: China’s evolving role in the global energy system.

The event highlighted that China is operating with a dual identity: it is simultaneously the world’s largest emitter and its largest supplier of critical transition components (like solar panels). The tension between these two identities - driver of demand and force for change - is reshaping the global energy system.

The Analysis: To understand the macro implications, I parsed the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2025.

The post, “China’s Pivot From Demand Driver to Supply Superpower,” uncovers a second-order effect of Western protectionism. By restricting access to advanced economies, the West is inadvertently forcing China’s massive clean energy surplus toward the Global South.

The Insight: Developing nations with the highest solar potential are set to be the primary beneficiaries of China’s “excess” low-cost capacity.

Read the full analysis in “China’s Pivot From Demand Drive to Supply Superpower”.

The Conversation: Graham and I share more about our experience in Beijing during our weekly Coffee Chat including observations of China’s mobile-first ecosystem, the massive scale of infrastructure development, and the quiet prevalence of electric vehicles.

Watch the replay of 47 Hours in Beijing.

The Visual: One image to save.

China dominates global manufacturing capacity for many clean energy technologies, but nearly half is is “excess”.

Bonus

What got my attention in 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙒𝙚𝙚𝙠 𝙏𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙒𝙖𝙨?

AI is everywhere. It seems like everyone is “deploying and adopting AI” and that everyone has an “AI strategy”. Dig deeper and you discover that AI is an umbrella term for many things and more specific language is required to truly understand what is being adopted, developed and deployed.

When a term has so many meanings to different folks, and in different contexts, more precise language helps me zero into the opportunity and impact of of the ideas being discussed. In a longer-form post, “What is AI?”, I lay out my current framework for understanding the space based on Five Groupings (or classes) of AI - based on their roles and capabilities - and 10 “Flavors” of the technology. Feedback, as always, is appreciated.

Graham and I discussed this topic, as well as his observations from the RE+ Conference (which gathered ~40,000 people focused on ower in Las Vegas this week) in our Coffee Chat.

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀, 𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗮𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗯𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝘀𝗮𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸? Please share in the comments for all of us!

Have a great week!

This week at a glance:

What got my attention in 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙒𝙚𝙚𝙠 𝙏𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙒𝙖𝙨?

The week offered a mix of reminders and surprises: methane proving harder to rein in, policy shifts in California shaping strategy, turbines and geothermal gaining momentum, and China redefining expectations on coal, emissions, and competitiveness:

• Methane has long been in the spotlight due to its outsized warming potential and economic value. Yet despite years of attention, a recent Nature paper shows methane emissions are still climbing—outpacing CO₂ growth. The data reveals stark regional contrasts and highlights how developed economies have increasingly offshored their methane footprint. Agriculture remains the largest source, but energy offers the greatest abatement potential.

• I was in California this week for meetings and conversations. My focus: how policy shifts like the OBBBA are reshaping strategies, whether load growth expectations have truly reset, the staying power of gas in power markets, and how AI is being applied (and judged) on the ground.

• In this week’s Coffee Chats episode, Graham and I jump from a first hand Waymo ride in San Francisco to the surge in turbine demand shaping power markets. We explore Baker Hughes’ move into geothermal with Organic Rankine Cycles, and wrap with a U.S.–China “Name That Country” showdown on coal, emissions, and power prices.

• China’s power sector is full of surprises. According to the IEA’s mid-year update, it’s projected to cut coal generation in 2025, deliver the largest emissions reductions globally through 2026, and still keep industrial power prices well below the U.S. These contrasts highlight how quickly China’s energy mix—and its edge in global competitiveness—continues to shift.

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀, 𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗮𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗯𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝘀𝗮𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸? Please share in the comments for all of us!

Have a great week!

What got my attention in 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙒𝙚𝙚𝙠 𝙏𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙒𝙖𝙨?

I’m back from paternity leave and excited to start writing On Energy again. Going forward, you’ll see a mix of posts—not only on energy strategy and markets, but also occasional reflections on leadership and growth.

The past week’s themes highlight how fast-moving shifts in technology, policy, and strategy are reshaping both energy markets and leadership approaches:

• A point worth repeating: 𝙬𝙝𝙞𝙡𝙚 𝘼𝙄 𝙥𝙤𝙬𝙚𝙧 𝙙𝙚𝙢𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙜𝙧𝙤𝙬𝙩𝙝 𝙞𝙨 𝙙𝙧𝙞𝙫𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙤𝙫𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙡𝙡 𝙥𝙤𝙬𝙚𝙧 𝙙𝙚𝙢𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙞𝙣𝙩𝙚𝙣𝙨𝙚 𝙞𝙣𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙩 𝙜𝙖𝙨 𝙛𝙞𝙧𝙚𝙙 𝙜𝙚𝙣𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙖𝙨𝙨𝙚𝙩𝙨, 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙙𝙤𝙚𝙨 𝙣𝙤𝙩 𝙣𝙚𝙘𝙚𝙨𝙨𝙖𝙧𝙞𝙡𝙮 𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙣𝙨𝙡𝙖𝙩𝙚 𝙞𝙣𝙩𝙤 𝙧𝙞𝙨𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙜𝙖𝙨 𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙨𝙪𝙢𝙥𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙛𝙧𝙤𝙢 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙥𝙤𝙬𝙚𝙧 𝙨𝙚𝙘𝙩𝙤𝙧.

• In this week’s Coffee Chats on Energy, Graham Bain and I explored how AI, capital, and policy are reshaping energy—from Wyoming’s 1.8 GW data center and CCS mandate to DOE’s push on SMRs and nuclear repowering, the scale and politics of Summit Carbon Solutions, and AI’s evolution from novelty to a true workflow tool.

• Success comes from setting clear goals, writing them down, and reviewing them regularly across three key areas—personal/family, business/financial, and self-development.

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀, 𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗮𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗯𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝘀𝗮𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸? Please share in the comments for all of us!

Have a great week!

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What got my attention in 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙒𝙚𝙚𝙠 𝙏𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙒𝙖𝙨?

From AI’s growing energy footprint to tech’s new role in clean power markets and the uneven geography of climate impacts, this week’s themes highlight how technology, climate, and infrastructure are becoming deeply intertwined.

• AI Everywhere: AI’s rapid spread across industries is driving a surge in data center power demand—making energy a tech issue and tech an energy issue—while the real race now is not just how much gets built, but where and how fast.

• Meta, Constellation and the Clinton Clean Energy Center: Meta and Constellation signed a 20-year PPA to secure 24/7 nuclear power from the Clinton plant, effectively privatizing Illinois' expiring ZEC program and valuing the plant’s carbon-free attributes at ~$1.5 billion—highlighting how tech companies are driving new markets for firm, clean energy.

• Hotter, Except Where It’s Cooler: While most U.S. cities have warmed significantly since 1970, a few have cooled—highlighting the uneven geography of climate change and the need for region-specific investment in energy infrastructure and climate resilience.

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀, 𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗮𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗯𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝘀𝗮𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸? Please share in the comments for all of us!

Have a great week!

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What got my attention in 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙒𝙚𝙚𝙠 𝙏𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙒𝙖𝙨?

From China’s power surge, to the contested role of natural gas, and how technology and demographics shape long-term emissions trajectories, this week was about the bigger picture away from the headlines:

• The Pace of Power: China’s electricity generation has surged past 10,000 TWh, more than double the U.S., as it rapidly expands both coal and renewables—highlighting a divergence in energy transition pace and priorities.

• Is Gas a “Clean Fuel”?: Despite lower CO₂ emissions than coal, natural gas’s role as a “clean” fuel is challenged by methane leakage and the global pivot toward truly zero-carbon sources like wind, solar, and nuclear.

• The Kaya Crossroads: Emissions could decline by 2070 if technological gains continue and population growth slows, as the Kaya Identity shows emissions are a function of demographics, economic activity, and energy system efficiency.

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀, 𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗮𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗯𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝘀𝗮𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸? Please share in the comments for all of us!

Have a great week!

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What got my attention in 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙒𝙚𝙚𝙠 𝙏𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙒𝙖𝙨?

From 𝙀𝙑𝙊𝙇𝙑𝙀 𝙞𝙣𝙨𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙩𝙨 𝙩𝙤 𝙜𝙡𝙤𝙗𝙖𝙡 𝙨𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙜𝙮 𝙨𝙝𝙞𝙛𝙩𝙨, 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙞𝙣𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙨𝙚𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙤𝙛 𝘼𝙄 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙚𝙣𝙚𝙧𝙜𝙮 𝙧𝙚𝙫𝙚𝙖𝙡𝙨 𝙧𝙞𝙨𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙜𝙧𝙞𝙙 𝙥𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙨𝙪𝙧𝙚𝙨, 𝙙𝙞𝙫𝙚𝙧𝙜𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙐.𝙎.–𝘾𝙝𝙞𝙣𝙖 𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙨𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙞𝙣𝙩𝙨, 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙜𝙧𝙤𝙬𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙞𝙢𝙥𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙖𝙣𝙘𝙚 𝙤𝙛 𝙩𝙚𝙘𝙝 𝙨𝙩𝙖𝙘𝙠 𝙘𝙝𝙤𝙞𝙘𝙚𝙨 𝙞𝙣 𝙨𝙝𝙖𝙥𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙣𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙖𝙡 𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙟𝙚𝙘𝙩𝙤𝙧𝙞𝙚𝙨, there has been plenty to discuss over the last week.

• The American and Chinese 𝗔𝗜 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝘀𝘆𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗺𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝗳𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗶𝗿 𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘁𝘀. In the U.S., power availability is increasingly the limiting factor to data center buildout. 𝗜𝗻 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗮, 𝗽𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝗽𝗶𝗱𝗹𝘆, 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗺𝗶𝘅 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀.

• 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗘𝗻𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘂𝘀 𝗘𝗩𝗢𝗟𝗩𝗘 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲, highlighting AI’s rising role, gas-fired power’s centrality, and growing interest in reliable low-carbon alternatives like geothermal.

• As countries consider their sovereign AI strategies, 𝙬𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙖𝙧𝙚 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙞𝙢𝙥𝙡𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙨 𝙤𝙛 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙩𝙚𝙘𝙝 𝙨𝙩𝙖𝙘𝙠 𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙮 𝙘𝙝𝙤𝙤𝙨𝙚?

• 𝗣𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝗱𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗶𝘀 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘆 𝗺𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗲 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗼𝗻𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗰𝗲𝘀—like compute growth, efficiency gains, and capital intensity—but the unpredictability of exponential outcomes makes it difficult to pin down just how big or fast this load will hit the grid.

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀, 𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗮𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗯𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝘀𝗮𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸? Please share in the comments for all of us!

Have a great week!

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What got my attention in 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙒𝙚𝙚𝙠 𝙏𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙒𝙖𝙨?

From 𝙀𝙑𝙊𝙇𝙑𝙀 2025 𝙨𝙥𝙤𝙩𝙡𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝘼𝙄 𝙖𝙨 𝙖 𝙙𝙚𝙘𝙞𝙨𝙞𝙤𝙣-𝙢𝙖𝙠𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙘𝙖𝙩𝙖𝙡𝙮𝙨𝙩, 𝙛𝙧𝙖𝙘𝙠𝙞𝙣𝙜’𝙨 𝙚𝙭𝙥𝙖𝙣𝙨𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙞𝙣𝙩𝙤 𝙘𝙡𝙚𝙖𝙣 𝙩𝙚𝙘𝙝, 𝙀𝙍𝘾𝙊𝙏’𝙨 𝙝𝙞𝙜𝙝-𝙨𝙩𝙖𝙠𝙚𝙨 𝙚𝙣𝙚𝙧𝙜𝙮 𝙢𝙞𝙭, 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙀𝙋𝙍𝙄’𝙨 𝙜𝙧𝙤𝙪𝙣𝙙𝙚𝙙 𝙖𝙣𝙖𝙡𝙮𝙨𝙞𝙨 𝙖𝙢𝙞𝙙 𝙗𝙡𝙖𝙘𝙠𝙤𝙪𝙩 𝙗𝙪𝙯𝙯, there has been plenty to discuss over the last couple weeks.

▪️𝗔𝗜 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗹𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝗽𝗼𝘁𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝗮𝘁 𝗘𝗻𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘂𝘀 𝗘𝗩𝗢𝗟𝗩𝗘 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱, delivering one key takeaway: “𝙎𝙥𝙚𝙚𝙙 𝙩𝙤 𝘾𝙡𝙖𝙧𝙞𝙩𝙮.” Across sessions, AI was praised as a powerful collaborator—accelerating workflows, surfacing insights, and driving sharper decisions.

▪️Fracking went from fringe to foundational in oil and gas—now it’s cracking open 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗴𝗲𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗹 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗵𝘆𝗱𝗿𝗼𝗴𝗲𝗻.

▪️𝗘𝗥𝗖𝗢𝗧 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗼𝘂𝘁 as one of the world’s most dynamic power markets—driven by diverse resources, rapid solar and storage growth, and selective gas additions—all unfolding amid a fragmented policy landscape and limited grid coordination.

▪️Amid speculation and noise, 𝗘𝗣𝗥𝗜’𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗯𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗿 𝗰𝘂𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵 with a clear, data-driven look at what’s publicly known about the Iberian blackout.

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀, 𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗮𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗯𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝘀𝗮𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸? Please share in the comments for all of us!

Have a great week!

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The Pexapark Podcast

I recently sat down with Luca Pedretti, COO and Co-Founder of Pexapark to discuss “What makes ERCOT one of the most dynamic power markets in the world?”. We discuss:

▪️ Why ERCOT Load Forecasts Are Likely Overstated
▪️ Why battery Storage Is Now Inseparable from Solar Growth
▪️ How Policy and Market Signals Remain Misaligned

You can listen to the episode here.

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What got my attention in 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙒𝙚𝙚𝙠 𝙏𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙒𝙖𝙨?

From GE Vernova’s view of a gas-fired “Investment Supercycle” to Fervo’s From 𝙂𝙀 𝙑𝙚𝙧𝙣𝙤𝙫𝙖’𝙨 𝙫𝙞𝙚𝙬 𝙤𝙛 𝙖 𝙜𝙖𝙨-𝙛𝙞𝙧𝙚𝙙 “𝙄𝙣𝙫𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙎𝙪𝙥𝙚𝙧𝙘𝙮𝙘𝙡𝙚” 𝙩𝙤 𝙁𝙚𝙧𝙫𝙤’𝙨 𝙗𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙠𝙩𝙝𝙧𝙤𝙪𝙜𝙝 𝙞𝙣 𝙜𝙚𝙤𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙧𝙢𝙖𝙡, 𝙧𝙞𝙨𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝘼𝙄-𝙙𝙧𝙞𝙫𝙚𝙣 𝙚𝙡𝙚𝙘𝙩𝙧𝙞𝙘𝙞𝙩𝙮 𝙙𝙚𝙢𝙖𝙣𝙙, 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙬𝙞𝙙𝙚𝙣𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙜𝙖𝙥𝙨 𝙞𝙣 𝙚𝙢𝙞𝙨𝙨𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙨 𝙞𝙣𝙩𝙚𝙣𝙨𝙞𝙩𝙮 𝙖𝙘𝙧𝙤𝙨𝙨 𝙖𝙨𝙨𝙚𝙩𝙨, there has been plenty to discuss this week.

• 𝗚𝗘 𝗩𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗼𝘃𝗮’𝘀 𝗤𝟭’𝟮𝟱 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝘀𝗵𝗲𝗱 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗴𝗮𝘀-𝗳𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝘂𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗺𝗶𝘅. In their words, we are in the midst of an “Investment Supercycle”, but only have just begun to see the impact of data center demand.

• In this Coffee Chat we discuss how 𝗙𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗼 𝗘𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗴𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗲𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗴𝗲𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗹 𝗽𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 with enhanced drilling techniques that have cut well costs, and break down the 𝗨.𝗦. 𝗘𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗴𝘆 𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗔𝗱𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻’𝘀 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱 𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸, which forecasts record-high electricity demand driven by AI, electrification and data centers.

• 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗼𝗽 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗯𝗼𝘁𝘁𝗼𝗺 𝗾𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘁 𝗲𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗴𝗼𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻 𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗲 𝗱𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 according to benchmarking by BCG.

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀, 𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗮𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗯𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝘀𝗮𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸? Please share in the comments for all of us!

Have a great week!

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What got my attention in 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙒𝙚𝙚𝙠 𝙏𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙒𝙖𝙨?

As energy demand surges and policy shifts loom, the EIA’s 2025 Outlook, Oxy’s DAC push, and coal site redevelopments found the spotlight:

• 2032 looms large in the 2025 edition of the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), released this week. The outlook is based on laws and regulations implemented as of December 2024 (i.e. pre-Trump) with the EPA’s proposed GHG rules, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) baked in. The new administration has signaled significant shifts in policy not incorporated in the AEO, making this edition of the EIA’s long-term outlook an interesting catalyst for conversation.

• 𝗢𝘅𝘆 (𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗱𝗹𝘆) 𝗮𝗰𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗱𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗰𝘁 𝗮𝗶𝗿 𝗰𝗮𝗽𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 (𝗗𝗔𝗖) 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗻𝘆 𝗛𝗼𝗹𝗼𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗲.

  The deal would be Oxy's second DAC acquisition following it’s 2023 deal to acquire Carbon Engineering for $1.1B. 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗱𝗼 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗱𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝘁𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗼𝗹𝗼𝗴𝗶𝗲𝘀? 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗱𝗼 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝘀𝗲𝗲 𝗮𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗗𝗔𝗖 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗖𝗖𝗨𝗦 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗴𝘆 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝘀𝘆𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗺?

• Capital Power just bought 𝟮.𝟮𝗚𝗪 𝗼𝗳 𝗳𝗹𝗲𝘅𝗶𝗯𝗹𝗲 (𝗴𝗮𝘀 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗱) 𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝗣𝗝𝗠 from LS Power Equity Advisors 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗨𝗦$𝟮.𝟮 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻. 𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗯𝗶𝗴 𝗮 𝗿𝗼𝗹𝗲 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗽𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗰𝗼𝗮𝗹-𝗳𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝘆 𝗶𝗻 𝗺𝗲𝗲𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗨𝗦 𝗹𝗼𝗮𝗱 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗻𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝗱𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗱𝗲?

• Coffee Chats: Trump wants coal back and labeled a critical mineral. As data centers surge, could coal-fired data or critical mineral wars reshape America’s supply chains? Join us as we dig into coal’s unlikely comeback, AI’s power hunger and what China’s mineral embargo means for the U.S.

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀, 𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗮𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗯𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝘀𝗮𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸? Please share in the comments for all of us!

Have a great week!

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What got my attention in 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙒𝙚𝙚𝙠 𝙏𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙒𝙖𝙨?

The decline of coal has been a feature of US energy, but could AI breathe new life into America’s coal plants—by turning them into data havens?

• 𝗖𝗮𝗻 𝗔𝗜 𝗯𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗰𝗼𝗮𝗹 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗽𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸? Yesterday President Trump signed an Executive Order to reinvigorate “America’s beautiful clean coal industry”. 𝗖𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝘄𝗲 𝘀𝗲𝗲 𝗮 𝗰𝗼𝗮𝗹 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗶𝗻 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗳𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲?

• 𝗜𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝗮𝗹 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗸𝗲𝘆 𝘁𝗼 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗱𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗽𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁? Coal power sites have many attractive attributes for data center siting - 𝗲𝘅𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗿𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲, 𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝘃𝗮𝗶𝗹𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗰𝗼𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗰𝗲𝘀 - and make retiring coal plants a attractive target for redevelopment.

• IPPs have performed well and big expectations are now priced in. However, their fates are not equal. This post from our Enverus Intelligence® Research team teases some of the differences we see across regions and name

• Coffee Chats: Are transmission bottlenecks overblown? Is CCUS surging? Graham Bain and I talked through our thoughts and what we are seeing in our work at Enverus during our Coffee Chat this morning.
  

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀, 𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗮𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗯𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝘀𝗮𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸? Please share in the comments for all of us!

Have a great week!

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Coffee Chats: Are transmission bottlenecks overblown? Is CCUS surging?

Graham Bain and I talked through our thoughts and what we are seeing in our work at Enverus during our Coffee Chat this morning.

Link: Coffee Chats: Are transmission bottlenecks overblown? Is CCUS surging?

IPP Performance

IPPs have performed well and big expectations are now priced in.

However, their fates are not equal. This post from our Enverus Intelligence® Research team teases some of the differences we see across regions and name:

Independent power producers (IPPs) face a pivotal shift as renewables reshape generation. Our recent report, Dispatch to Dollars – Market Forecasts Driving IPP Profits, outlines the impact on profitability through 2035. Opportunities arise amid thermal retirements and volatile pricing.

• IPP capacity will decline through 2035 as coal and distillate plants retire; however, revenue in high net-load zones like PJM and MISO will rise through 2030, driven by price volatility induced by renewable energy.

• Evolving market dynamics – lower prices during solar and wind peaks, and higher prices in the mornings and evenings – enable strategic dispatch, offsetting long-term capacity constraints with short-term revenue gains.

What got my attention in 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙒𝙚𝙚𝙠 𝙏𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙒𝙖𝙨?

Transmission was in focus. The need for more is taken as a given, but how fast we can build transmission? And under what conditions do need (or not need) to accelerate? Meanwhile, HVDC is having a moment, and retiring coal plants may find new life as prime real estate for data centers.

• 𝗗𝗼𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗻𝗲𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝗮𝗰𝗰𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲? The NREL study provides a host of scenarios that help frame the discussion. Under what scenarios does the pace 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗡𝗢𝗧 𝗻𝗲𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝗮𝗰𝗰𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲?

• 𝗪𝗲 𝗻𝗲𝗲𝗱 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻, but 𝗶𝘁 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲𝘀 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗴𝗲𝘁 𝗮 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗽𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆. 𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗺𝗮𝗻𝘆 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗴𝗲𝘁 𝗯𝘂𝗶𝗹𝘁? 𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗺𝘂𝗰𝗵 𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗮𝗰𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗱𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗽𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗯𝗲 𝗮𝗰𝗰𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱?

• 𝗛𝗩𝗗𝗖 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝘀 𝗵𝗼𝘁. The changing generation mix (read: 𝗿𝗮𝗽𝗶𝗱 𝗱𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗽𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗲𝘄𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲𝘀) has put additional premia on the strengths of HVDC transmission. Need proof? Some of the most notable transmission projects in the US are HVDC projects.

• 𝗜𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝗮𝗹 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗸𝗲𝘆 𝘁𝗼 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗱𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗽𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁? Coal power sites have many attractive attributes for data center siting - 𝗲𝘅𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗿𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲, 𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝘃𝗮𝗶𝗹𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗰𝗼𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗰𝗲𝘀 - and make retiring coal plants a attractive target for redevelopment.

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀, 𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗮𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗯𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝘀𝗮𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸? Please share in the comments for all of us!

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What got my attention in 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙒𝙚𝙚𝙠 𝙏𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙒𝙖𝙨?

From Picasso’s Bull, to announcements from 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗦𝗵𝗲𝗹𝗹, 𝗥𝗪𝗘 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗦𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗲𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗿, and surprising interest in comments about the gas turbine market, there has been plenty to discuss:

• AI is impacting all types of work, and it has me thinking, “𝙒𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙝𝙖𝙥𝙥𝙚𝙣𝙨 𝙬𝙝𝙚𝙣 𝙜𝙚𝙣𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜 “𝙙𝙚𝙘𝙚𝙣𝙩” 𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙩𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙞𝙨 𝙩𝙧𝙞𝙫𝙞𝙖𝙡 𝙖𝙣𝙙 “𝙘𝙤𝙨𝙩𝙡𝙚𝙨𝙨”? 𝙒𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙙𝙤𝙚𝙨 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙢𝙚𝙖𝙣 𝙛𝙤𝙧 𝙥𝙧𝙤𝙛𝙚𝙨𝙨𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙖𝙡𝙨 (𝙡𝙞𝙠𝙚 𝙢𝙚) 𝙚𝙭𝙥𝙡𝙤𝙧𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙚𝙫𝙖𝙡𝙪𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙞𝙣𝙙𝙪𝙨𝙩𝙧𝙞𝙚𝙨 𝙡𝙞𝙠𝙚 𝙚𝙣𝙚𝙧𝙜𝙮?” Somehow those questions led me to Picasso’s Bull.

• Shifts in US energy policy are impacting decisions in boardrooms around the world. A series of 𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗦𝗵𝗲𝗹𝗹, 𝗥𝗪𝗘 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗦𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗲𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗿 illustrate that many companies have 𝗮 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗲𝗺𝗽𝗵𝗮𝘀𝗶𝘀 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗨𝗦.

• 𝗘𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗮𝗹𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗵𝗼𝘄 𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝗶𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗴𝗲𝘁 𝗮 𝗴𝗮𝘀 𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗯𝗶𝗻𝗲. This discussion of “𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗯𝗮𝗱 𝗶𝘀 𝗶𝘁?” and a few hints from recent transcripts from from GE Vernova (~50% market share) and Siemens Energy (~28% market share) drew a lot of interest.

• With the gas turbine market experiencing tightening supply and rising prices, the door is open for other technologies to emerge. 𝗜𝘀 𝗵𝘆𝗱𝗿𝗼𝗴𝗲𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗮𝗹𝘁𝗵 𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗻𝗲𝗿 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗴𝗮𝘀 𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗯𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗯𝗼𝗼𝗺?

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀, 𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗮𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗯𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝘀𝗮𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸? Please share in the comments for all of us!

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What got my attention in 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙒𝙚𝙚𝙠 𝙏𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙒𝙖𝙨?

A mixed bag of topics got my attention during the week: Crusoe, Engine No. 1, Chevron, and GE Vernova are showcasing how integrated value chains are key to data center growth, midstream players are capturing value from rising power demand, and “reconsidered” regulations are set to change the energy playing field.

• 𝗗𝗲𝗮𝗹𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘆 𝗖𝗿𝘂𝘀𝗼𝗲, 𝗘𝗻𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗡𝗼𝟭, 𝗖𝗵𝗲𝘃𝗿𝗼𝗻, 𝗚𝗘 𝗩𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗼𝘃𝗮 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗱𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗽𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗯𝗹𝗲. And it is all about partnering to complete value chains and the ability the assemble, scale and secure them.

• 𝗪𝗵𝗼 𝗰𝗮𝗽𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗰𝘀 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗽𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝗱𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗱? 𝗔𝗻𝗱 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝘂𝗽𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗺 𝗴𝗲𝘁 𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗶𝗱𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗺 𝗴𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝘆 𝗮 𝗯𝗶𝗴𝗴𝗲𝗿 𝗿𝗼𝗹𝗲? In between the gas producer and generator sits the midstream operator, aggregating and delivering supply. And right now, they seem to be capturing a large share of the value.

• 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝘀 "𝗖𝗮𝗿𝗯𝗼𝗻 𝗜𝗻𝗻𝗼𝘃𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻"? In our lexicon "Carbon Innovation" refers to the decarbonization investment opportunities most adjacent to the oil and gas value chain, including subsurface innovation technologies like CCUS and geothermal, and low carbon fuels, like hydrogen and RNG.

• 𝗘𝗣𝗔 𝗔𝗱𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗟𝗲𝗲 𝗭𝗲𝗹𝗱𝗶𝗻 𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝟯𝟭 𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 “𝘂𝗻𝗹𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗵 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗴𝘆”, 𝗮𝗺𝗼𝗻𝗴𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗮𝗶𝗺𝘀. Three regulations under reconsideration that stood out to me: Clean Power Plan 2.0, OOOO b/c and the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program.

• 𝟰𝟮,𝟬𝟬𝟬 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝟯.𝟯𝟱 𝗧𝗪 𝗼𝗳 𝗰𝗮𝗽𝗮𝗰𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘀𝗶𝗺𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱𝗣𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺 𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿. 𝗔 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗽𝗹𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗼𝗱 𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗺𝗲: The variability in project size by region, the crossover point of inverter choice by project size, tracker choices by geography, and hybrid plant penetration.

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀, 𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗮𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗯𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝘀𝗮𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸? Please share in the comments for all of us!

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What got my attention in 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙒𝙚𝙚𝙠 𝙏𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙒𝙖𝙨?

𝗜 𝗸𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗸𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗼𝗶𝗹 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗴𝗮𝘀 𝘀𝗮𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘆 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗽𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 “𝗘𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗴𝘆 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻”. But they are. Regardless of business model, or strategic focus, every logo in the energy system is exposed to a moment is enormous change. And that 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲 𝗜𝗦 𝘁𝗵𝗲 “𝗘𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗴𝘆 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻”, even if where is the system is headed, and how will we get there, remains uncertain.

• This week Diversified Energy, FuelCell Energy and TESIAC announced a strategic partnership to supply up to 360 MW of “net-zero power from natural gas and captured coal mine methane” for data centers. What is fascinating about this deal is how the partners have combined unique assets to create an interesting (and potentially valuable) value chain.

• The escalating trade war - and Doug Ford’s electricity tariff - made me wonder about US energy consumption and the balance of US energy trade. 𝗖𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗼𝗶𝗹 𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗲𝘀 𝘂𝗽 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗵𝗮𝗹𝗳 𝗼𝗳 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗨𝗦 𝗽𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗹𝗲𝘂𝗺 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘁𝘆 𝗺𝘂𝗰𝗵 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗻𝗮𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗴𝗮𝘀 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘀. It is 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗻𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗰𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗿𝘆’𝘀 𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗴𝘆 𝘀𝘆𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗺𝘀.

• Secretary Wright’s remarks at CERAWeek made the US policy direction clear. Within his comments you also see 𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗴𝘆 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝗮𝘀 𝗳𝘂𝗹𝗰𝗿𝘂𝗺 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗨𝗦 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆 and 𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗴𝘆 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗮𝘀 𝗮 𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝘀𝗲𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗶𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗲.

• The combination of 𝘄𝗶𝘀𝗱𝗼𝗺, 𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘁𝗶𝗰𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗼𝗹𝗼𝗴𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘂𝗻𝗹𝗼𝗰𝗸𝗲𝗱 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗹𝗲, 𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗲𝘀 𝗴𝗲𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗹 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗦𝗠𝗥𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗼𝗹𝗼𝗴𝘆 𝗯𝗲𝘁𝘀, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗳𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗰𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀 (𝗯𝗼𝘁𝗵 𝗮𝘀 𝗹𝗼𝗮𝗱𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝘀 𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲). It is what is shaping the future of energy and what I love about this moment in energy. And it is the theme of Enverus 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱 𝗘𝗩𝗢𝗟𝗩𝗘 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲.

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀, 𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗮𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗯𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝘀𝗮𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸? Please share in the comments for all of us!

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What got my attention in 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙒𝙚𝙚𝙠 𝙏𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙒𝙖𝙨?

With the capital flowing into the data centers boom, everyone wants a piece of the action. And with that focus we have seen a surge of interest in gas fired power generation. Midstream serves that need and is poised to benefit.

• Williams is investing $16 billion in gas-to-power projects, leveraging its infrastructure to support growing demand for flexible, lower-carbon energy. For gas producers supply gas into these pipeline systems, the question remains: "𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘆 𝗴𝗲𝘁 𝗮 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗰𝘀 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗴𝗮𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗽𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀?"

• Could tariffs be a tailwind for LNG demand? 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗮 𝗰𝗼𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗯𝗹𝗲𝗺 (you need to dissipate a lot of heat). LNG regas has "cold energy" and can act as heat sink while also providing feedstock for gas-fired power generation. The result is a number of 𝗲𝘅𝗮𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗳 "𝗟𝗡𝗚-𝗰𝗼𝗼𝗹𝗲𝗱 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀" 𝗯𝗲𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀.

• More Capacity ≠ More Gas Burn. With all the excitement about gas fired generation capacity coming on, mostly connected with data center buildouts, it’s 𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘆 𝗮𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗺𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗺𝗲𝗮𝗻𝘀 𝗮 𝗹𝗼𝘁 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗴𝗮𝘀 𝗯𝘂𝗿𝗻. 𝗧𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗮 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸𝘆 𝗮𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗺𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻.

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀, 𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗮𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗯𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝘀𝗮𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸? Please share in the comments for all of us!

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What got my attention in 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙒𝙚𝙚𝙠 𝙏𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙒𝙖𝙨?

A light week as our family welcomed a new addition (everyone is healthy and doing well!).

• On the Innovation Underground podcast, I highlighted three subsurface innovations: cold flow heavy oil in Alberta, deepwater Gulf of Mexico developments, and shale, which accelerates migration over millions of years into decades. Each reflects an abundance mindset—turning nature’s challenges into opportunities. The same innovators now drive geothermal, CCUS, and natural hydrogen. What are your favorites?

• Is attracting data centers a race, or is there room for a measured approach? At YYC Data Con, we debated whether rapid development is necessary to secure long-term investment. While sustainability and social impacts matter, early movers may gain an edge by establishing their region as a prime destination. Does seizing the moment outweigh a cautious approach?

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀, 𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗮𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗯𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝘀𝗮𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸? Please share in the comments for all of us!

Have a great week!

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What got my attention in 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙒𝙚𝙚𝙠 𝙏𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙒𝙖𝙨?

• "Just as energy is the basis of life itself...and ideas the source of innovation… so is innovation the vital spark...of all human change, improvement and progress". Sometimes we need a reminder that beneath it all is an inspiring story of the role of energy in innovation, and the importance of innovation to improve the human condition.

• With ~10.9GW of proposed new data center load on the AESO’s Connection Project List, against all-time peak load of ~12.4 GW, data centers have the potential to reshape Alberta’s electrical system and it’s oil and gas focused energy industry. However, this is still small potatoes relative to Dominion’s 40 GW queue in Virginia. And it makes me wonder how competitive is Alberta really in the global race to attract these new large loads?

• What makes a state or province attractive for data center development? It comes down to “endowments”. A good example of an “endowment” from Alberta endowment is the province’s SuperNet, a 13,000 km fiber-optic and wireless network connecting 429 communities.

• Taxes are boring. What about tax breaks for an industry amidst a boom (not a nascent new energy technology)? 36/50 states surveyed by Husch Blackwell have a form of tax incentives for new data center development.

• Everyone is focused on power for data centers, but “molecules” might make the difference in attracting new projects. Are regions with CCUS and hydrogen infrastructure are positioning themselves as more attractive to energy-intensive industries like data centers?

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀, 𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗮𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗯𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝘀𝗮𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸? Please share in the comments for all of us!

Have a great week!

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What got my attention in 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙒𝙚𝙚𝙠 𝙏𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙒𝙖𝙨?

• Chris Wright’s first Secretarial Order pivots the DOE’s priorities towards energy abundance, and I was left wondering how fast will the impact be felt (Can the DOE keep up with DOGE? | Chris Wright’s first Secretarial Order).

• Shell released their 2025 Energy Security Scenarios, including a new (and more positive in my opinion) “Surge” scenario considering “a new wave of economic growth spurred by productivity improvements catalyzed by AI” (Surge of Optimism in Shell's Scenario | The scenario explores the potential of AI to change the energy system).

• DeepSeek’s model advance has raised all sorts of questions about the future energy demand’s for AI, but many frame it as a datacenter tailwind. I wonder if this is a case of group think, or are we really in a golden moment where all news is good news for data centers and power demand?

• As AI, data centers and “gas-to-power” themes continue to dominate, we are seeing more related deals. Energy Transfer struck a 450 BBtu/d Deal with Cloudburst that left me wondering, “Can gas producers tap into the data center boom?” and get a premium on their gas?

• However, the is forecasting US power supplied by gas is set to DECLINE 3.7% and 0.8% in 2025 and 2026, all while financial buyers Blackstone, Quantum and Trafigura are accumulating gas-fired power assets. Why? Gas-fired generation is UNDERPAID (The reliability attribute is undervalued and likely the draw for financial buyers)

Expanded thoughts on each of these ideas are below.

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀, 𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗮𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗯𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝘀𝗮𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸? Please share in the comments for all of us!

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