Boom & Mismatch
A Mismatch in US Energy Growth
The US does not have an energy production problem.
It may have an electricity problem.
Recent data from the EIA shows that US energy production rose to a new record in 2024, about ~1% higher than the record set in 2023.
Natural gas, crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, and renewables all reached new highs. That sounds good from an energy perspective (and it is). However, the leading sources are all combustion fuels. Two highlights:
Natural gas plant liquids exceeded total renewables energy production (this says more about natural gas production growth than anything).
Biofuels production was roughly equivalent to solar and wind generation combined.
As power generation grows in importance - driven by AI and electrification trends - energy resources that produce electricity, particularly of the dispatchable and low-carbon flavor, grow in importance. From that standpoint the data is less rosy:
Nuclear, hydro and geothermal energy production (low-carbon baseload?) were both their historical peaks 2007, 1997 and 2023 peaks.
Coal continues its 15+ year decline in absolute terms.
Natural gas, albeit the majority is destined for LNG and non-power consumption.
So while the US energy picture is as strong as ever, the shifting taste of consumers (towards electrical versus combustion pathways), suggest the mix may be falling out of sync with demand.