๐๐ฎ๐๐ฎ ๐๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐๐ฎ ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ฝ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐...?
Multiple exponential forces underpin predictions for power demand from data centers.
But ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ป๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ถ๐ฎ๐น ๐ผ๐๐๐ฐ๐ผ๐บ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐ป๐ผ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ผ๐๐๐น๐ ๐ต๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฑ ๐๐ผ ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐. The result is plenty of opinions and uncertainty โhow bigโ, and โhow fastโ, this load is coming at the grid.
A few of the big factors at work:
๐๐ผ๐บ๐ฝ๐๐๐ฒ ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐บ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ: Historically exponential, and expectations that AI will lead to an inflection in the growth rate.
๐๐ผ๐บ๐ฝ๐๐๐ฒ ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ด๐ ๐ฒ๐ณ๐ณ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฐ๐: Each generation of chip has consistently delivered more compute per watt.
๐ฃ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐จ๐๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐๐ณ๐ณ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฐ๐ (๐ฃ๐จ๐): The ratio of total energy consumed by a facility to the energy used by the IT equipment alone continues to improve.
๐๐ฎ๐ฝ๐ถ๐๐ฎ๐น ๐๐ณ๐ณ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฐ๐ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ฃ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ: While dollar per unit of compute continues to decline, dollars per unit of energy consumed is rising.
๐ ๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป๐๐ฒ๐ป๐ฎ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐๐ฎ๐ฝ๐ถ๐๐ฎ๐น ๐ฅ๐๐ป-๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ: Chips are getting replaced on a 4-6 year cycle. As facility capacity expands, so does the run-rate of maintenance capital.
Add in the land grab (see image below) as stakeholders across the country look to take advantage of the AI boom, and itโs no wonder that the headlines (such as Microsoft pulling back from data center leases) can be hard to interpret.
๐ช๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐ฑ๐ผ ๐๐ผ๐ ๐ณ๐ถ๐ป๐ฑ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ด๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐๐ ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฏ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ณ๐ณ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐ผ๐๐ฟ ๐ณ๐ฎ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ถ๐๐ฒ ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐๐ ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐๐ฎ ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฝ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐บ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ?
