๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ต๐ฎ๐ฝ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ถ๐ป ๐ฆ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฃ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐๐ด๐ฎ๐น ๐น๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ?
There remains a lot of speculation about the true cause of the black out, and at times its tough to separate opinions from data. EPRI did a nice job in this webinar laying out what is visible in the public data and contextualizing what is known about the event.
Listening in reminded me of a few recurrent themes:
๐๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐ถ๐ป๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐ป๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ด๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฑ๐ ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ป ๐ถ๐ป๐๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฑ๐๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐ป๐ฒ๐ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐บ๐ฝ๐น๐ฒ๐ ๐ถ๐๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ, ๐ฝ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ถ๐ฎ๐น๐น๐, ๐ป๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐น ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฏ๐น๐ฒ๐บ๐ ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐ด๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฑ ๐ผ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ ๐๐ผ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ. Case in point: the potential for new oscillations in the European grid due to integrating Latvia.
๐๐๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ถ๐ป๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐ป๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐บ๐ฎ๐ ๐ต๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐บ๐ฝ๐ผ๐๐ป๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ถ๐ป๐ถ๐๐ถ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ ๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ฎ๐น๐๐ผ ๐ต๐ฒ๐น๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐๐ถ๐๐ต ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐น๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ธ๐๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐. There are puts and takes for everything. What a bonus to be able to pull ~1,500 MW from France during the Spanish grid restoration.
๐๐๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฑ๐ถ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ถ๐๐ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐๐ผ๐๐ฟ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ (๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐๐ผ๐๐ฟ๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐ฎ๐๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฏ๐๐๐ฒ๐) ๐บ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ป๐ ๐ฒ๐๐ผ๐น๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ด๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฑ ๐ฑ๐๐ป๐ฎ๐บ๐ถ๐ฐ๐. Established assumptions can lead to emergent risks. For example, did existing protection setup create a vulnerability exposed by a changing system?
As more data becomes available in the coming days and weeks, weโll get a clearer explanation of the cause and cascade of events, but for now I found this a helpful way to understand what is known.
Source | EPRI