Name the Country (China or US)
Charts from the IEA’s “Electricity Mid-Year Update 2025”
Between the US and China, which country is forecasted to:
Reduce coal fired generation in 2025?
Have the largest reduction in power section emissions from 2024 to 2026?
Has the highest projected final electricity prices for large industrial consumers?
China is frequently cited for comparison when considering the buildout of US power and AI capacity. A few charts that add color to the conversations were presented in the the IEA’s “Electricity Mid-Year Update 2025”.
Most are aware that Chinese power demand, and generating capacity, is growing at a rate that dwarfs other regions of the world (it represents more than half of annual global load growth according to IEA figures).
And the aggressive addition of solar capacity (and generation, as a result), is increasingly well documented (see the green bars below). Critics often note that coal generation capacity is also growing, so it caught my eye when the report showed a decline in China’s coal generation projected for 2025.
The result is China’s power sector is set to deliver the largest reduction in power generation emissions of any country between 2024 and 2026. Yes, the baseline is much higher, but this is a win.
Last, I was struck by this chart of final electricity prices for large industrial consumers. Based on the headlines, I would have expected power to be more expensive in the US than China, but that is the opposite of the data presented. That was a surprise (I confess ignorance as to what other policy or support my offset the $25-30/MWh difference).
