NERC Waving the Risk Flag
"Type 2 Fun" Ahead for Power
๐๐๐๐ฉ ๐๐๐ช๐๐๐ฉ ๐ข๐ฎ ๐๐ฉ๐ฉ๐๐ฃ๐ฉ๐๐ค๐ฃ? NERC sees on-peak reserve margins falling below jurisdictional resource adequacy requirements in almost every assessment area in the next 10 years and underscores three critical reliability challenges for the industry: meeting surging energy demand, navigating accelerating generator retirements, and urgently advancing resource and transmission development in itโs 2024 Long-Term Reliability Assessment.
๐๐๐ฎ ๐๐ฉ ๐ข๐๐ฉ๐ฉ๐๐ง๐จ? Power is rich with opportunity (and risk), and looks to be getting richer (and riskier). Solutions will have to come from multiple angles and involve preserving/extending the life of existing assets, accelerating investment across the energy system, and more monitoring and management of existing and emerging risks.
For example: NERC recommends managing generator retirements, enhancing risk assessments, streamlining infrastructure development, improving gas-electric system coordination, and ensuring essential reliability services to address escalating energy and capacity risks and maintain grid reliability amidst rapid transitions.
Itโs an exciting time to be in the industry with the future full of Type 2 fun!
NB: "Type 2 fun" refers to activities that are challenging or uncomfortable while you're doing them but become enjoyable or rewarding in hindsight. Unlike "Type 1 fun," which is pleasurable both during and after the experience, Type 2 fun often involves pushing personal limits and enduring discomfort, leading to a sense of accomplishment upon reflection.
๐ฟ๐๐ฉ๐๐๐ก๐จ:
โขย ย Generator retirements: Totaling 115 GW over the next decade, driven by economic, policy, and regulatory factors, will cause on-peak reserve margins to fall below required levels in nearly all assessment areas, highlighting an urgent need for additional resources.
โข Changing Resource Mix: Rapid additions of solar PV, batteries, and other variable energy resources (VER) are transforming the resource mix, but the increasing reliance on weather-dependent generation reduces essential reliability services (ERS), with natural-gas-fired generators remaining vital for balancing variability and ensuring reliability during peak periods, despite declining natural gas pipeline capacity trends.
โข Electricity demand is growing at unprecedented rates: Summer peak demand projected to increase 15% and winter peak demand 18% over the next decade, driven by rapid industrial and commercial load growth (e.g., data centers for AI and crypto), as well as widespread adoption of EVs and heat pumps, posing challenges for demand forecasting and grid planning.
๐๐๐ฃ๐ ๐จ:
Well summarized.