A New Era: Gas's Role, a Net-Zero Milestone, and a Baseload Showdown
The Week That Was: October 19-25, 2024
NOTE: “The Week That Was” is a recap of ideas shared over the last seven days.
This Week’s “On Energy”
Spare Parts: What Caught My Eye This Week
Power Inflection: Is It Really Here?
Power Inflection. Is it really here?
And who benefits most? The EIA’s most recent report highlights a record-breaking moment: Texas (ERCOT) hit an all-time peak demand of 85.5 gigawatts on August 20.
With buzz around data centers and long-awaited load growth, you'd expect to see clear signs of an inflection point in the data.
But it's not that simple.
Weather plays a significant role in the short-run, of course, but look closer at the charts. The change is subtle, hidden in the light blue trendline—hardly the paradigm shift many are hoping for. When compared to the shift in energy mix—gas ramping up (green), coal declining (orange), and wind and solar emerging—the demand shift is subtle at best.
Yet this could be why power markets are buzzing. A break from this 20-year trend would mark a generational shift.
For me, the real question is: Which generation source benefits most from growing demand? The new renewables? The incumbent gas? Maybe it is nuclear?
Energy Dome announced today it has secured a supply contract with Alliant Energy for the Columbia Energy Storage Project in Wisconsin, featuring its 20MW/200MWh CO2 Battery, capable of powering 18,000 homes for 10 hours.
Energy Dome’s CO2 battery stores energy by compressing and expanding carbon dioxide in a closed-loop system, providing efficient and scalable long-duration energy storage without emitting CO2.
Potential advantages over compressed air energy storage (CAES) include higher energy density, better thermal efficiency, and greater geographic flexibility than compressed air storage.
Competing technologies at this duration include:
Pumped Hydro, Flow Batteries, and CAES: Established long-duration storage options with scalability but limited by geographic, cost, or efficiency constraints.
Emerging Technologies: Thermal storage, hydrogen storage, and gravity-based systems are gaining traction for long-duration storage but face infrastructure and efficiency challenges.
Lithium-Ion and Solid-State Batteries: Advancements in battery technology aim to extend storage durations, though they remain costlier for long-duration applications compared to newer alternatives.
What do you see as the key advantages and disadvantages of Energy Dome’s CO2 battery compared to alternative long-duration storage technologies?
Will EQT Get Credit? EQT Achieves its Net-Zero Scope 1 and Scope 2 Target
Will EQT get credit?
EQT Corporation announced it has achieved its net-zero Scope 1 and Scope 2 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions target, ahead of its 2025 goal.
This is an achievement worthy of celebration, even if some may have critiques of the approach.
How they achieved net-zero:
Methane and emission reductions: EQT reduced Scope 1 GHG emissions intensity by 35% year-over-year and earned a “Gold Standard” rating from the UN’s Oil & Gas Methane Partnership for aggressive methane reduction efforts.
Technological innovation and efficiency: The company eliminated 100% of natural gas-powered pneumatic devices, reducing annual CO₂ emissions by more than 300,000 metric tons .
Water recycling and carbon sequestration projects: EQT recycled 96% of produced water and entered a forest management partnership in West Virginia, creating verifiable carbon sequestration projects to further offset emissions .
How will the market respond? What should other emitters learn from EQT's strategy?
Read the company’s announcement here: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/eqt-achieves-its-net-zero-scope-1-and-scope-2-ghg-emissions-target-ahead-of-2025-goal-302285107.html?tc=eml_cleartime
I love how this chart for illustrates that distinction. Here are three key takeaways from our Enverus Intelligence® Research team's work:
Renewables rise in share of capacity, but challenges persist: Solar and wind will dominate future power capacity additions, but their variability increases the risk of power imbalances and overgeneration.
Gas remains the grid’s safety net: As renewables expand, natural gas will be essential for bridging the gaps during periods of low wind or sunshine.
Battery limitations: Current battery technology can’t meet seasonal energy demands, restricting their long-duration support for renewables.
As solar and wind capacity grows, overgeneration will occur. What opportunities does this present?
Place Your Bets! The Race Between Geothermal and Nuclear
Last week the Bureau of Land Management approved the Fervo Energy Cape Geothermal Power Project in Beaver County, Utah, which will use Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) technology (i.e. hydraulic fracturing) to produce up to 2 GW of power.
This marks a significant milestone for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS), positioning it as a strong competitor to nuclear power:
𝗦𝗖𝗔𝗟𝗘: As a low-carbon power source, the project aims to generate up to 2 gigawatts (GW) of electricity—equivalent to roughly two large nuclear reactors and viable for large scale #datacenters.
𝗟𝗘𝗔𝗥𝗡𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗖𝗨𝗥𝗩𝗘𝗦: EGS technology is advancing rapidly. Fervo drilled its fastest well at Cape in just 21 days, reducing drilling time by 70% compared to its first horizontal well at Project Red in 2022. This efficiency cut drilling costs nearly in half, from $9.4 million to $4.8 million per well.
𝗧𝗜𝗠𝗘 𝗧𝗢 𝗠𝗔𝗥𝗞𝗘𝗧: With BLM approval and power purchase agreements, like the 320MW deal with Southern California Edison (SCE), the project is on track for 70 MW of power by 2026. In contrast, most new nuclear projects aim for the 2030s.
While project execution and long-term performance remain risks, the Cape project is paving the way for a new era in geothermal energy. Will geothermal surpass nuclear in the future of clean energy?
$2.9 Billion In Guarantees for SAF
Is This a Turning Point?
Last week the Loan Programs Office | U.S. Department of Energy (LPO) backed two projects with $2.9 Billion in conditional loan guarantees to propel U.S. sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and biofuel expansion:
1. Montana Renewables, LLC in Great Falls, MT: Converts vegetable oils, fats, and greases into SAF, renewable diesel (RD), and renewable naphtha (RN). When fully expanded, this facility will meet 10% of the U.S. SAF Grand Challenge goal of 3 billion gallons annually by 2030—positioning itself as a leading global SAF producer.
2. Gevo, Inc.'s Net-Zero 1 in Lake Preston, SD: The first large-scale U.S. facility to convert corn starch into SAF, renewable diesel, and renewable naphtha. This innovative project will integrate carbon capture and renewable power to lower emissions, while leveraging low-carbon, U.S.-grown corn from local farmers.
Low-carbon technologies to decarbonize aviation are still in their early days—immature, expensive, and challenging to scale.
Could these two projects be the breakthrough needed for SAF production? What other projects would be candidates?