Power Inflection. Is it really here?
And who benefits most? The EIA’s most recent report highlights a record-breaking moment: Texas (ERCOT) hit an all-time peak demand of 85.5 gigawatts on August 20.
With buzz around data centers and long-awaited load growth, you'd expect to see clear signs of an inflection point in the data.
But it's not that simple.
Weather plays a significant role in the short-run, of course, but look closer at the charts. The change is subtle, hidden in the light blue trendline—hardly the paradigm shift many are hoping for. When compared to the shift in energy mix—gas ramping up (green), coal declining (orange), and wind and solar emerging—the demand shift is subtle at best.
Yet this could be why power markets are buzzing. A break from this 20-year trend would mark a generational shift.
For me, the real question is: Which generation source benefits most from growing demand? The new renewables? The incumbent gas? Maybe it is nuclear?
