Any parent knows the feeling. Two kids, same event, two completely different stories. That is what it feels like sitting between oil and gas analysts and power market analysts right now. Both are looking at U.S. gas burn for power generation. Both have data. Both are confident. And they could not disagree more about where it is headed by 2030.
The oil and gas side sees a compelling bull case. Load growth is real (EIR forecasts energy consumption up 10.2% by 2030). Data centers are driving it (30 GW of new capacity over five years by our count, the ISOs think it is closer to 50 GW). Those data centers overwhelmingly prefer gas. GEV and Siemens are reporting record order books for gas turbine technology. EIR’s own capacity expansion model has gird connected new gas builds averaging 10 GW per year (double the last 2 year average).
Data centers add a second layer of conviction. EIR estimates 15 GW of behind the meter facilities with dedicated gas generation, adding 2.1 Bcf/d. LBRT and SEI are building real businesses powering them. If the fastest growing load class in America is tying itself to gas, surely gas burn is headed higher.
The power side is less convinced. In ERCOT, batteries already set the clearing price 23% of the time, commanding a $21/MWh flexibility premium over combined-cycle gas. Solar and storage are not a future scenario in Texas. They are setting the marginal price today. And EIR’s L48 gas balances reflect the implication: power generation demand sits at 35.5 Bcf/d in 2026 and 35.0 Bcf/d in 2030. Flat. Load grows 10%. Gas capacity grows by tens of gigawatts. Gas burn for power goes nowhere.
The explanation is straightforward. Data centers secure gas because they need firm, dispatchable power. But solar paired with batteries is entering the rest of the stack at zero marginal cost. Demand that was previously met by gas shifts to a grid increasingly served by renewables during daylight and batteries into the evening. Gas does not disappear. It gets pushed to the peaks and the margins.
The oil and gas sibling looks at turbine orders and data center gas contracts and sees a growth story. The power sibling looks at dispatch stacks, interconnection queues and battery economics and sees a utilization story. They are both looking at real data. We just think the power guys are right.
Comments, questions or things I missed? Send me a note (or hit reply) - I would love to hear from you. Thanks for reading!
Morning Energy is a syndicated note I publish through Enverus Intelligence. My contributions will also be distributed here. Please note that links frequently lead to content available only to subscribers of Enverus solutions. Please reach out if you have any questions. Thanks! - Ian.