Past the 1.5C Warming Post

How Will Policy Respond?

𝙒𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙘𝙖𝙪𝙜𝙝𝙩 𝙢𝙮 𝙖𝙩𝙩𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣? 2024 was confirmed as the warmest year on record, with a global average temperatures 1.60°C above pre-industrial levels, marking the first calendar year to exceed the 1.5°C threshold, with record-breaking monthly and daily temperatures throughout the year.

𝙒𝙝𝙮 𝙞𝙩 𝙢𝙖𝙩𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙨? The Paris Climate Agreement, adopted at COP21 in 2015, aims to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels while pursuing efforts to cap it at 1.5°C to avoid severe climate impacts.

By exceeding the 1.5°C target in 2024, and little to believe the world will not overshoot further, eyes likely turn towards the 2°C commitment and whether policy will shift more towards accommodating an overshoot or towards more aggressive policy designed to keep warming below 2°C.

𝘿𝙚𝙩𝙖𝙞𝙡𝙨:

•   2024 set multiple global temperature records: It was the warmest year since records began in 1850, with a global average temperature of 15.10°C, surpassing the 1991-2020 average by 0.72°C and exceeding 2023’s record by 0.12°C. This is 1.60°C above pre-industrial levels, marking the first calendar year to breach the 1.5°C threshold.

• Consistently high monthly and daily temperatures: Monthly global averages exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for 11 months, and the daily record high of 17.16°C was set on July 22, 2024. Notably, January-June 2024 were the warmest respective months on record.

• Broad geographic and seasonal impacts: 2024 was the warmest year for all continental regions except Antarctica and Australasia, with significant warming in the North Atlantic Ocean, Indian Ocean, and western Pacific Ocean. Three record-warm seasons—boreal winter (+0.78°C), spring (+0.68°C), and summer (+0.69°C)—were also recorded.