Weaponizing Energy Trade
Petroleum and Gas Tariffs Matter More Than Electricity
๐ฃ๐ฒ๐๐ฟ๐ผ๐น๐ฒ๐๐บ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ด๐ฎ๐ (๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ณ๐ณ๐) ๐๐ผ๐๐น๐ฑ ๐ฏ๐ฒ ๐บ๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐๐ด๐น๐ถ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ป ๐ฒ๐น๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ถ๐๐...
The escalating trade war - and Doug Fordโs electricity tariff - made me wonder about US energy consumption and the balance of US energy trade. In particular, in a world where trade is weaponized (with tariffs and retaliatory tariffs) ๐ต๐ผ๐ ๐ฏ๐ถ๐ด ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ด๐ ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ฒ ๐ณ๐น๐ผ๐๐?
Specific to the electricity tariffs, in terms of total primary energy ๐ถ๐บ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ ๐๐ผ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐จ๐ฆ, ๐ฒ๐น๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ถ๐๐ ๐ฏ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐น๐ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ด๐ถ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ (see the yellow trace on this EIA Table 1.4a below). ๐๐๐ฑ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฏ๐ผ๐ป (๐ผ๐ถ๐น ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ด๐ฎ๐) ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ฒ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ฝ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ท๐ผ๐ฟ๐ถ๐๐ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ด๐ ๐ถ๐บ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐.
Zooming out to the broader US energy picture you can see the success of US oil and gas (and the shale revolution): ๐ง๐ผ๐๐ฎ๐น ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ด๐ ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฑ๐๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ด๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐ป ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฝ๐ถ๐ฑ๐น๐ ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐น๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ญ๐ฑ ๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ (see the blue trace in the EIA Table 1.1 below).
However, ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ถ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ด๐ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐๐๐บ๐ฝ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐บ๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐ด๐ต๐น๐ ๐ณ๐น๐ฎ๐ (๐ณ๐น๐ฎ๐ ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐น๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ฎ๐ฑ ๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐), meaning ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ด๐ ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ถ๐บ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ ๐ต๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ป ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ฎ๐น๐ฎ๐ป๐ฐ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ถ๐๐ฒ๐บ (๐ถ๐ป ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ฎ๐ฑ-๐ฏ๐ฑ% ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ผ๐๐ฎ๐น ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐๐๐บ๐ฝ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ต).
Total imports (shown in brown) have only declined modestly, while exports (shown in green) have ramped sharply, exceeding imports around 2020. ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ถ๐ ๐ถ๐ป๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐ผ๐ป ๐ฎ ๐ป๐ฒ๐ ๐ฏ๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐, ๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ถ๐บ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ ๐ฝ๐น๐ฎ๐ ๐ฎ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ท๐ผ๐ฟ ๐ฟ๐ผ๐น๐ฒ ๐ด๐ฒ๐๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐บ๐ผ๐น๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐น๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ผ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐๐ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐บ.
Back to Canada: as of the most recent EIA data ๐๐ฎ๐ป๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ฎ๐ป ๐ผ๐ถ๐น ๐บ๐ฎ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ฝ ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ต๐ฎ๐น๐ณ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ฎ๐น๐น ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐๐ฟ๐ผ๐น๐ฒ๐๐บ ๐ถ๐บ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐๐๐ ๐บ๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐ฎ๐น๐น ๐ป๐ฎ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐น ๐ด๐ฎ๐ ๐ถ๐บ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐. It is ๐ถ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ฏ๐น๐ฒ ๐ถ๐ป๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐ป๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ฒ๐ฑ๐ป๐ฒ๐๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐๐ป๐๐ฟ๐โ๐ ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ด๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ฒ๐บ๐.