Methane Rising, Turbines Turning, China Surprising
The Week That Was: August 31 - September 7, 2025
NOTE: โThe Week That Wasโ is a recap of ideas shared over the last seven days.
What got my attention in ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ฉ ๐๐๐จ?
The week offered a mix of reminders and surprises: methane proving harder to rein in, policy shifts in California shaping strategy, turbines and geothermal gaining momentum, and China redefining expectations on coal, emissions, and competitiveness:
Methane has long been in the spotlight due to its outsized warming potential and economic value. Yet despite years of attention, a recent Nature paper shows methane emissions are still climbingโoutpacing COโ growth. The data reveals stark regional contrasts and highlights how developed economies have increasingly offshored their methane footprint. Agriculture remains the largest source, but energy offers the greatest abatement potential.
I was in California this week for meetings and conversations. My focus: how policy shifts like the OBBBA are reshaping strategies, whether load growth expectations have truly reset, the staying power of gas in power markets, and how AI is being applied (and judged) on the ground.
In this weekโs Coffee Chats episode, Graham and I jump from a first hand Waymo ride in San Francisco to the surge in turbine demand shaping power markets. We explore Baker Hughesโ move into geothermal with Organic Rankine Cycles, and wrap with a U.S.โChina โName That Countryโ showdown on coal, emissions, and power prices.
Chinaโs power sector is full of surprises. According to the IEAโs mid-year update, itโs projected to cut coal generation in 2025, deliver the largest emissions reductions globally through 2026, and still keep industrial power prices well below the U.S. These contrasts highlight how quickly Chinaโs energy mixโand its edge in global competitivenessโcontinues to shift.
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐บ๐ผ๐๐ ๐ถ๐ป๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฒ๐, ๐ถ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐๐ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐๐ผ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ? Please share in the comments for all of us!
Have a great week!
Methane Emissions Growth
Methane emissions have been a target for several years now, in large part due the high warming potential of the molecule vs CO2 (84-86x over 20 years and 28-34x over 100 years) and the potential economic value of the molecules.
Turbine Earnings, Geothermal ORCs, Waymo & "Which Country?"
In this episode of Coffee Chats on Energy, Ian and Graham cover a mix of on-the-ground experiences and market shifts across transportation, power generation, and global energy trends.
Questions for California
I am in California this week for a series of meetings and an event and I am looking forward to what I will hear from the people in the roomโwhere things are heading, whatโs holding up under pressure, and what new themes might surface that I have not thought about yet.