Episode Length
~10 minutes
Episode Summary
In this episode, the hosts dive into the IEA’s report on global oil and gas field decline rates, highlighting both the challenges and opportunities in sustaining production. They explore the capital intensity required to maintain output, the realities of conventional field declines, and how enhanced recovery methods like CO₂ EOR can significantly extend field productivity. The discussion balances skepticism over reported decline rates with optimism about the industry’s ability to innovate and extract more from existing assets.
Topics Covered
IEA report on oil and gas field decline rates and CapEx requirements
Differences between observed vs. true decline rates across global supply stacks
Shale, conventional fields, and supergiant reservoirs in decline calculations
Exploration-to-production timelines and development costs
Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) methods, especially CO₂ floods, and their impact on recovery rates
Key Takeaways
Reported decline rates may understate the true pace of conventional field declines.
Maintaining global oil production requires replacing ~6 million barrels per day annually.
CapEx demands rise as production grows and fields with higher decline rates enter the supply mix.
CO₂ EOR can extend field life, recover up to 60–80% of reserves, and reduce decline steepness.
While decline forecasts highlight risks, they also underscore the industry’s capacity to innovate and sustain supply.
Coffee chats are casual conversations On Energy, hosted live on LinkedIn. Opinions are my own, not investment advice or views of my employer.
