Episode Length: 17 minutes
Episode Summary
This episode opens with casual banter before diving into two main themes: the record-breaking Nevada geothermal lease sale and the growing discourse around the circularity and potential bubble in AI investments. The conversation moves fluidly between energy market parallels and the economics of emerging technologies. It ends on a forward-looking discussion about AI adoption, consumer behavior, and agentic systems becoming deeply embedded in everyday workflows.
Topics Covered
Record-setting Nevada BLM geothermal lease sale results and pricing metrics
Comparison of geothermal and oil & gas leasing dynamics
Influence of infrastructure access (HV transmission lines) on geothermal land values
Concerns about AI market circularity, overinvestment, and parallels to past bubbles
The evolution of AI applications, business models, and everyday utility
Key Takeaways
The Nevada geothermal lease sale leased 280,000 acres—marking the largest in history—with top bids reaching $410 per acre, totaling roughly $8.8 million in sales.
Access to transmission infrastructure is a stronger driver of lease value than subsurface characteristics.
Shell bidders and proxy companies may indicate strategic land grabs by major geothermal players such as Fervo, Invenergy, and Ormat.
Despite signs of AI investment circularity (e.g., Nvidia–CoreWeave transactions), long-term demand for AI remains strong and structurally justified.
Users’ growing dependence on AI tools for productivity and automation highlights a transition from experimentation to essential utility, reinforcing durable business models for the sector.
Coffee chats are casual conversations On Energy, hosted live on LinkedIn. Opinions are my own, not investment advice or views of my employer.
