Episode Length
~17 minutes
Episode Summary
This episode covers three interconnected developments in energy innovation: the accelerating momentum in geothermal leasing, the operational success of Tallgrass’s CO₂ sequestration project in Wyoming, and the rapid improvements in AI model energy efficiency. The hosts explore how these themes reflect broader transitions in power generation, carbon management, and digital energy demand, tying together technological learning curves, market adoption, and the pace of infrastructure evolution.
Topics Covered
Geothermal energy economics and land leasing: Discussion of rising Bureau of Land Management (BLM) lease prices, innovation in enhanced geothermal systems, and the technology’s low land footprint and reliability advantages.
Carbon capture and Tallgrass project: Overview of Tallgrass’s retrofit of a natural gas pipeline to transport CO₂ from ethanol plants, demonstrating real-world CCS deployment success.
AI and energy efficiency: Review of new research showing a 33x improvement in energy efficiency per AI prompt year over year, and how this interacts with rising demand.
Energy learning curves: Comparison of technology iteration speeds across geothermal, nuclear, and renewables.
Market dynamics and Jevons Paradox: Reflection on how efficiency gains often drive greater overall consumption.
Key Takeaways
Geothermal ascendance: Leasing prices for geothermal acreage have surged from ~$6/acre in 2020 to ~$125/acre today, underscoring growing investor and developer interest.
Scalable low-carbon reliability: Geothermal provides dispatchable, low-carbon power with minimal land use, leveraging oil and gas expertise for rapid innovation.
CCUS momentum continues: Despite policy headwinds, ethanol-based carbon capture projects like Tallgrass’s are commercially advancing by stacking 45Q, 45Z, and CDR credits.
AI energy paradox: Model-level energy use per prompt has fallen 33x, yet total consumption continues to rise as AI becomes more pervasive.
Learning beats perfection: Technologies that iterate fastest—geothermal and AI among them—gain durable competitive advantages over those that are “technically superior” but slower to evolve.
Coffee chats are casual conversations On Energy, hosted live on LinkedIn. Opinions are my own, not investment advice or views of my employer.
